27 August 2018Reading time: 2 minutes

In the past period, the AEX focused on the publication of the quarterly and half-year results of the companies that are listed within the index. The heavyweights within the AEX performed alternately. ASML was the first in July with their second quarter results and once again managed to beat market expectations. However, the chip machine manufacturer does point out that it remains to be seen how the trade dispute between the US and China will develop itself and how this could affect chip manufacturers.

Royal Dutch Shell could not live up to expectations with their results, which was due to the negative exchange rate effects and higher oil- and gas prices. The first half-year results of Unilever were also under pressure because of the strong euro. Nonetheless the operational margin rose with 80 points to 18,6 percent, which was more than analysts counted on.

One of the things which investors have to take into account is the development of the inflation. In March we wrote about how the inflation stayed behind the targets of the central banks and therefore it remained to be seen if and when the interest rates would be increased. An important indicator for the inflation development are the consumer prices. The Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS) early August announced that the consumer price index has risen to the highest level in five years’ time. In July the Dutch payed 2,1 percent more for goods and services than a year earlier. Consumers especially face higher prices for rent and energy.

In the United States the inflation remained stable during July at 2,9 percent at an annual basis. The coming period should reflect the possible impact of the recent executed American import tariffs on the American economic growth and inflation development.

Just like other indices, the AEX was affected by the unrest in Turkey. Especially financials such as ING and ABN AMRO but also steel company ArcelorMittal got hit hard. Since early August the AEX plummeted with approximately 2,5 percent to 559 points (22-08-2018). Now the peace seems to have returned on the worldwide stock markets, it remains to be seen if the AEX will restore in the coming period.

The future price of the index is subject to several political, industrial and sector specific as well as economic factors. Investors should consider such risk when making their investment decisions. Developments can be different at any time than investors expect, which can result in capital losses.

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18/10/2019 16:18:35